Home Page  Book Reviews The Party's Over
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The Party's Over |
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Written by Graham Strouts
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Tuesday, 30 November 2004 |
'Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies' by Richard Heinberg
What would we do without Black Gold, the ancient natural super-bounty that has
shaped the modern world more than any other single factor?
This is the question asked by Professor Heinberg in this highly readable study
of the world energy situation as we approach Peak Oil, and is a question we will
all have to address very seriously in the coming years.
As a child growing up in the 60s and 70s in southern England I have vivid memories
of powercuts, of sitting around hurricane lanterns and tilly lamps in the darkened
kitchen, an atmosphere of family cosyness in the half-light.
My sisters and I were brought up to conserve energy in the home. It was impressed
upon us by my father to switch the lights out, to have the gas ring as low as
possible to still boil the water, and never to leave the heating on unnecessarily.
Through a degree of frugality and good husbandry of the family resources, we nevertheless
had a comfortable and prosperous upbringing.
What was actually happening globally that shaped my early upbringing with qualities
that I am still glad to be guided by was the oil price shock of 1973. In the early
chapters of "The Party’s Over" Heinberg describes the geopolitical situation
that lead to a price hike from $3 per barrel before the 1973 Egypt-Israeli war
to $12 p.b. after the OPEC oil embargo in protest at the West’s and in particular
US’ military support of Israel – and then a further price increase after the 1979
Iran-Iraq war to over $30 p.b. Since virtually everything in modern consumer society
– food, plastics, buildings and transport – depends upon increasing use of energy,
a price rise in oil will result in a price rise in nearly everything, and indeed
the US experienced an inflation rate of nearly 10% throughout the 70s and 80s.
This is because, as Schumacher pointed out nearly 40 years ago, that energy, in
the modern world, in the form of fossil fuels, is not just another commodity,
it is the basic requirement of all commodities. The entire economy is literally
powered by non-renewable resources, with oil accounting globally for 40% of all
energy and fully 90% of transport.
The 1970s oil crises was followed by about a decade in the West of belt-tightening
measures in the form of conservation and improved energy-efficiency, which ultimately
lead to a glut in supply, a fall in prices, and the global economic recovery of
the 80s. This sense of having "ridden the tide" may have lead subsequently
to a false sense of security, that there will always be abundant cheap energy.
We believed, even though there may be recessions, recovery will always follow
as the market adjusts.
Heinberg explains this was quite a false sense of security by telling a deeper
story of oil, one that went unnoticed in the ongoing march of progress and increased
affluence. Something happened in the early 70s that has shaped the world political
situation ever since, and that is now of crucial significance to understand -
if we are to prepare for the coming global oil crises:
Sometime in the 1970s US domestic oil production peaked. It has been declining
inexorably ever since and no amount of new technology in the most well-resourced
and highly-funded industry in the world has been able to reverse this.
The oil producing nations of the Middle East had in fact tried to put the squeeze
on the West prior to ’73 but were ineffective in doing so because the US still
had a growing supply of domestic oil. From the 70s onwards, however, America has
become inexorably ever more dependent on imported oil and ever-more concerned
with securing its energy demands from over-seas…
What is Peak Oil?
Drawing on the early work of geophysicist M.K. Hubbert in the 60s and 70s, who
had predicted US oil peak but was rubbished by his contemporaries, and on the
ongoing work of Colin Campbell, founder of the Association for the Study of
Peak Oil- Heinberg chillingly uncovers the concept and significance of Peak
Oil:
• US discovery of oil peaked in the 1930s. US production peaked about 40 years
later, in the early ‘70s.
• World discovery peaked in 1964. No amount of new technology has changed the
fact that less oil has been discovered each year since then.
The shocking truth is that World Oil Production is set to peak around
about now, or at most in a few years time.
Some expert’s think that World Oil Peak may already have passed. This means
that from now on we can expect that global production of oil is going to decrease.
This is not the end of oil, in the first 150 years of the oil age we have used
about half of what is predicted to be ultimately recoverable, but this was the
easy half. The rest will be increasingly expensive to get to, requiring ever-deeper
wells in more difficult environments, so the net-energy return is declining
drastically. In the boom years of the 1930s, for every unit of energy expended
to extract the oil, 100 units were returned, nowadays the ratio is more like
1:8 and this is declining with each passing year. As world demand continues
to escalate,especially with India and China poised to stake their claim for
this dwindling natural resource, the significance of Peak Oil simply cannot
be underestimated. There is still oil in the ground, but this is the end of
cheap oil, and soon, for many, could be the end of affordable oil. This could
be in fact the beginning of the end of the Industrial Era, even of the modern
world as we know it.
But is the Party really Over?
Alternatives to Oil
After outlining the prognosis, the true state of the world’s oil reserves, Heinberg
considers the possibility of alternatives, and finds that:
• natural gas is also close to peak;
• coal is rapidly returning less net energy as mines get deeper and quality
declines;
• that plutonium for nuclear power is also a finite resource that requires oil
for its mining and involves rising costs as safety concerns and waste increase;
• and that wind, solar and other renewables can scarcely begin to make up the
shortfall in available energy that has been provided, and largely squandered,
by the unique qualities of oil.
There is really only one conclusion that can be drawn:
We are entering a new era, an era of energy descent.
While renewables, greater efficiency and new technology will help soften the
downward curve, they cannot reverse it. We will have no choice but to give up
the notion of endless economic growth and adopt a radically different lifestyle,
focusing on local food production, a far less mobile society and sustainable
design strategies such as permaculture that work within an understanding of
natural energy constraints.
In Chapter 5, "A Banquet of Consequences", Heinberg writes:
"…my essential purpose in this chapter…(is) not to depress but to help
readers who are willing to do so to face the reality squarely and to take informed
action, so that as many as possible of the dire impacts discussed here can be
prevented or mitigated".
The consequences he refers to "depict a century of impending famine, disease,
economic collapse, despotism and wars… The future projections under each heading
above represent what are not possible though improbable disasters, like an asteroid
hitting the Earth tomorrow, but the likely outcomes of present trends. Everyone
I have met who understands population and resource issues comes to essentially
the same conclusions and has to deal with the same emotional responses, which
typically run the gauntlet from shock, denial, despair and rage to eventual
acceptance, and a determination to do whatever is possible to help avert the
worst of the likely impacts."
Heinberg’s book is an extremely compelling and thorough study of the current
world energy situation. Though disturbing in its conclusions, I found it leant
a refreshing taste of reality and honesty to a world which can feel increasingly
ephemeral if viewed only through the lens of the mainstream media.
What I find most intriguing about the whole issue is how, with all the miracles
and gifts of the modern world, we have not escaped the fundamental concern of
all nature, that of energy.
I would urge anyone interested in the future, both personal and global, to read
this book.
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26thAug 2004
Weblinks:
http://eos.postcarbon.org
http://eos.globalpublicmedia.com
www.associationforthestudyofpeakoil.com
(ASPO)
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