Throughout human history major advances in society have been accompanied by changes in culture and civilisation. From the Stone Age through the Neolithic, and on, to classical times, our world view and philosophy have evolved. Presently, the dominant world view is that the world is a resource to exploit as we see fit and that humanity is entirely separate from nature. However, there is a growing body of opinion that as a result of this world view the major economic, ecological and political systems of the earth are on the cusp of massive changes. Some changes may be inevitable but they do not have to lead to collapse.

In spite of clear warnings we are behaving as though economic growth with all it entails can continue indefinitely. This is despite the Stern Report, IPCC reports and evidence of dramatic climate change. We are aware of the dangers of climate change but we are absorbed in the minutiae of our lives in which the latest electronic gadgets, soap operas and sports stars are more immediate and important than a threat to our species and the entire planet.

The Hirsch Report which was commissioned by the US Government states that the effects of peak oil on the world economy would be seriously damaging and that early mitigation is essential. The report recommends that it will take decades of fully mobilised activity to implement the necessary transition. Ireland, even more than its European neighbours, is completely unprepared for this.

Compounding the problems of peak oil are the effects of climate change. The EU is committed to limiting temperature increase to 2oC above industrial levels, however a 2oC increase could still expose two billion people to water shortages and cause the extinction of up to 30% of the world’s species.

Humans are a truly globalised species, and there are few places on earth that we have been unable to colonise so it should be no surprise that some form of globalisation has emerged. The economic, political and ecological systems have evolved the way they have because their main objective has been the continuation of money growth through a debt based money system. These systems are highly sensitive to stimuli and can change rapidly from one energy state to another, after long periods of stability. We may now be approaching a time during which the economic, political and ecological systems will face massive changes but the outcome of these changes is not pre-determined. It is important as we approach this potential ‘chaos window’ as some label it, to try to prepare for the shocks which will occur.

‘Gaia’ * has supported life for over three billion years through self-regulation, to ensure that the conditions necessary for life have continued. This is in spite of the fact that there has been a 30% increase in energy from the sun during that time. It is this capacity for self-organisation that has allowed it to evolve and survive changing conditions.

We need to replace the current global system with a world wide network of Gaian democracies based on the principles which have allowed it to survive for so long. This form of globalisation would be democratic, participatory, multilayered, complex and adaptive. Networks of Gaian democracies will extend through ordered relationships from local communities to global networks.

Peak oil has the potential to be a powerful catalyst with profound implications for our economic and political systems. Economic growth and energy consumption go hand in hand and without energy there can be no economic growth. If the world economy cannot grow there is a danger that it will go into recession and perhaps ultimately a depression.

Even if some combination of alternatives could replace oil, by continuing on our current path we would soon be on our way to the next crisis whether it is water, topsoil, rising sea levels or population growth. On a fundamental level we must choose to limit our personal consumption and to live sustainably. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that there is great resistance to this from our political and economic establishment and from us as individuals.

Engaging in local community, politics, using energy saving appliances, cycling or growing some food may not save the world but it does send a powerful message to society that we are aware of and taking personal responsible for the challenges ahead.

Our ecological footprint is about one acre of productive land per person and is shrinking. However with that land we can sustainably produce enough food for everyone. Living within our ecological footprint will not be easy but continuing on our present course appears likely to reduce us to disaster and subsistence anyway. We can chose to transition to an energy constrained life in balance with the earth and within our ecological footprint, or face the frightening reality of a vengeful Gaia.

As a species we can live practically anywhere on earth but in order for society and our civilisation to survive, fundamental social change will be required. I like to think that in twenty years time we will be living in participatory Gaian democracies that are developing on a sustainable path. The nations of the world will have signed the Oil Depletion Protocol, carbon emissions will be strictly controlled, there will be no hunger and a new globalised world will emerge which is conscious of our role on the planet. We need to accept what science shows us - that we are interconnected and interdependent on nature. We need to ensure that changes occur the way we want them to and that the future we end up with is the best possible future we can imagine.

Mini Bio: Peadar Lynch has a BSc from UCD and an MSc from Queens University Belfast. He is currently exploring community based responses to the challenges of energy depletion and climate change. Look out for the Home Energy Audit Course in Crumlin College and the launch of Abbeyleix Sustainable Energy Project this autumn. This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it (See What’s Happening section).